For a picturesque moment, Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga stood inches away from one another with hands clasped. Directly behind the two men stood former United Nations Secretary General, and current Chair of Eminent Persons, Kofi Annan, beaming with appreciation. For that picturesque moment it seemed as if Kenya could be made whole again after nearly a month of being torn apart. For a picturesque moment, everything seemed well. Since that picturesque moment (and two handshakes later), Kenyans have been killed, Kenyans have been displaced and Kenyans have had their lives indelibly altered.
It wasn’t supposed to happen here. The machete welding… the raping of women…the burning of homes…the brutal and inhuman taking of life… the suppression of human rights, it wasn’t supposed to happen here. Not in Kenya. Kenya had stood as one of the most stable of African nations since differing forms of sovereignty swept the continent in the middle of the 20th century. From an outside perspective, Kenya appeared to be one of the more tolerant of the nations that have had to deal with deep and entrenched divides in its republic. Its sizable middle class was thought to be a bulwark against the
vicissitudes
and extreme shifts of fortune that make many republics so susceptible to violent instability. But the fact is that 800 Kenyans have been killed and 600,000 Kenyans have now been displaced and the illusion of stability has been blown into tiny little shreds of national identity.
Much of the problem can be traced to land disputes that date back to Kenyan independence in 1963. Jomo Kenyatta, Kenya’s first President following independence, bequeathed large swaths of land to his native Kikuyu. Though some of these arrangements were perfectly legal most were awarded without explanation and the land grab has been a primary source of on-again, off-again sparks of conflict and permanent resentment since the end of British colonial rule.
But if the kindling was the history of division along ethnic lines than the matchstick was the recent Presidential election. The incumbent, Kibaki, had come into power in 2002 on a wave of positive sentiment after ending former President Daniel Arap Moi’s 24 year long rule. Kibaki ran on a platform of change with the promise of ending endemic corruption and economic stagnation. By many accounts, he has delivered on his promise to stimulate the economy, presiding over a 6% climb in the national economy in 2006. But the preponderance of Kenyans feels strongly that the fruits of economic expansion haven’t been distributed evenly amongst the various ethnic communities. In a nation with over 34 million people and over 40 ethnic communities, the Kikuyu comprise the largest ethnic group with approximately 22% of the population. This majority has allowed Kibaki to leverage the support of his native community to forge a strong political base but his uneven hand has hardened feelings against everyday Kikuyu who do not benefit from governmental largesse.
Odinga, the head of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), ran for president on a platform of ethnic neutrality. A long time presence on the Kenyan political scene, Odinga was able to build a broad coalition around the hope that the wealth and opportunities that many felt had been mostly the province of the Kikuyu would be distributed more equably. The division along ethnic lines quickly led to an ugly political campaign where politicians highlighted cultural differences in often bizarre and belittling ways (Odinga was even railed against for being uncircumcised). The result was a heated race in which passions were often raised to dangerous levels. However, by the time Election Day rolled around it was widely assumed that Odinga would win in a landslide. It wasn’t until the actual vote count began that it became obvious that the fix was in. Mysteriously, Kibaki’s vote count began increasing after polling closed and what was a sizable Odinga lead was transmogrifying into a slim Kibaki win. On the third day of tallying votes paramilitary police stormed the Kenyatta International Conference Center where the count was taking place. Minutes later Kibaki was declared the winner and was sworn in the same day. Kenya exploded.
The Rift Valley is where most of the bloodshed has transpired. The largely rural district has been a stage for the sad scene of "have not" members of the Kalenjin ethnic community brutally attacking "have not" Kikuyus. But all of Kenya has shared in the misery in some form or fashion and the troubles extend beyond the nation’s borders. As the jewel in East Africa’s economy, neighboring countries depend on Kenya to drive industry in the region. In addition, large numbers of Kenyan Muslims, angered over treatment imposed upon them by the Kenyan Government since the “War on Terror” began, have disrupted the city of Mombasa, which serves as an important port to the region.
Western observers have emphasized a power sharing agreement between the principles. Smarmy remarks about Odinga’s brashness and penchant for fancy cars and fabulosity are used to downplay the seriousness of his position thus reducing the conflict to a spat between two power hungry opportunists and their crony communities. But this has obscured a complicated issue and patently ignored the frustrations of Kenyans who were devastated by the boldness and malevolence of Kibaki’s power play. Early reports consistently painted the situation in Kenya as “tribal conflict” between the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities. This reasoning left large swaths of logic behind—including the strangely overlooked fact that Odinga is from the Luo community—and are in stark contrast to reality which posits people across Kenya’s mosaic of ethnic communities as part and parcel of the opposition. The conflation of the parties that comprise the governmental opposition was useful in identifying a quick-fix solution but did little to address the issue in all its severity. The emphasis on encouraging misdirected dialogue in place of a true analysis of the conflict’s political underbelly has rendered the global community largely impotent and robbed Kenyans of the focused international pressure that helped force Arap Moi to relinquish power in 2002.
Despite all of the difficulties, leaders such as Kofi Annan and John Kufor, the President of Ghana, have been able to bring the two principles to the negotiation table. And talks have progressed to the point where both sides have shown the willingness to back off key points of disagreement such as a re-count and the resignation of Kibaki. However, it will have to be seen how effective these talks will be with the Kenyan people if Kibaki is ultimately allowed to stay in office regardless of the nature of any peace agreement. It is just as much the symbolic nature of Kibaki that enrages people in Kenya as his politics so it is doubtful that any long term progress can be made as long as he stays in office. As a result the anger will not subside and the reasoning for the violence will not disappear. This time, handshakes will not be enough. |
