Interim South African President Kgalema Motlanthe’s announcement that general elections would take place on April 22nd released a rush of anxiety across the nation.  For the first time since Nelson Mandela took office following the fall of apartheid there will be a transfer of power from one political party to another in South Africa.  The African National Congress (ANC), the party that dominated the country’s liberation struggle, will officially cede a portion of its political power to the African National Congress, a divided party whose future is uncertain.  Though the shift in power is more symbolic than literal the primary point is clear—For South Africa a new, if not particularly bright, day is on the horizon. 

The infra war-fare that has weakened the seemingly indestructible ANC had been a slow burn until Jacob Zuma, the former Deputy Minister challenged President Thabo Mbeki for party leadership.  Then what had been the growing murmur of internal dissension ruptured into all out civil struggle. 

Mbeki had been handpicked by the Great Man Mandela himself to succeed him as the leader of South Africa.  As the second President of the new and vastly improved South Africa, Mbeki was entrusted with the well fare of a nascent country still raw with division and more than frightened with what the future might hold. 

Erudite and aloof Mbeki was born into the ANC.  His father was an active member of the party and Thabo officially joined the party at the age of 14.  In 1985, Mbeki cemented his place in South African history by serving on the delegation that negotiated the insertion of the ANC into the national political process. Fiercely committed to his vision of an African Renaissance, Mbeki seemed to be an ideal successor to the Great Man.  After winning the Presidency in 1999, he was awarded a second term in 2004 and had become a fixture on the African scene whenever crisis arose on the continent. 

But Mbeki also gained a reputation as an insecure man overly concerned with real or imagined threats of insurgency.  His accusation of treason against three of the ANC’s most respected figures was the kind of movement that would play a big part in his demise.  The accusation infuriated and/or confused many members of the media who criticized Mbeki’s “paranoia” and warned of a growing “Stalin-like” affection for power on behalf of the President.  None of the three men were formally charged with any crimes or misdemeanors.  And though each was pushed out of office all of them would eventually return to the ANC to play some hand in the removal of Mbeki from his perch.

Mbeki planted another seed for his eventual downfall when he spearheaded arms deals meant to modernize South Africa’s military.  Costing over $5 billion, the expenditure confused many who thought the money could be better spent when there were no foreseeable military threats to the country and poverty remained such an endemic problem.  Additionally, myriad allegations of corruption in the execution of the deal ensnared numerous high level members of the South African government including Mbeki’s Deputy—Jacob Zuma. 

Unlike the cerebral Mbeki, Zuma never received formal schooling and rose through the ranks of the ANC via a more tumultuous path.  He joined the ANC at the age of 17 and was soon serving a 10 year prison sentence for conspiring to overthrow the Apartheid government.  After doing hard time at Robbens Island, he fled to Mozambique and Zambia where he built his bonafides within the ANC.  Like Mbeki, Zuma participated in the negotiations that would lead to the end of apartheid and thus cemented his position in the leadership of the new nation.  He assumed the position of Deputy to President Mbeki.

In 2005, Zuma’s world seemingly fell apart.  His right hand man, Schabir Shaik, was found guilty of fraud and corruption in connection with the controversial arms deal that enveloped the government.  Shaik’s conviction severely tainted Zuma who was soon brought up on charges of corruption as well.  Mbeki unceremoniously fired the troubled Zuma who was also fighting a rape charge against a family friend in court.  It seemed like the end for Zuma.  Only it wasn’t.

Cleared of the rape charges, Zuma returned to the political front to challenge his former boss despite the unsettled matter of his corruption charges. Zuma used his perception as a populist to good effect by contrasting it with the “ivory tower” persona of Mbeki.  With a growing economy but a continued scarcity in jobs, Mbeki was becoming increasingly vulnerable on the grass roots level. Dismissing his legal troubles as an ongoing conspiracy to silence the “voice of the people,” Zuma stepped right into the void. At the ANC party leadership conference in December of 2008 the verdict was rendered.  Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma was to be the new leader of the ANC and de facto President of South Africa.  Mbeki, as far as his political future was concerned, was now a dead man walking.  It would be mere months before the hatchet fell.  

Zuma is now the man in the hot seat.  His ascension to the throne is temporarily stalled as he is ineligible to serve in the transition government because was not a Member of Parliament at the time of Mbeki’s resignation.  On April 22nd his time will come. And though his followers are thrilled by the notion of his rise his troubles are far from behind him.  Zuma thought that he would be able to walk away from his corruption charges when in 2008 his case was annulled due to the Prosecution’s difficulties in mounting its case.  But a recent ruling by the Court of Appeal reinstated the case thus putting Zuma’s possible incarceration back on the table.

This does not bode well for a South Africa in need of steady and dependable leadership. In the 18 years since Nelson Mandela was set free and the chains of apartheid were effectively dismantled there lies the very real possibility that Jacob Zuma will claim the titles of President of South Africa and “Convicted Felon” nearly simultaneously.     

The deserting members of Mbeki’s parliament formed the Congress of the People (COPE) and immediately voiced their opposition to their former comrades.  Headed by Mosiuoa ‘Terror’ Lekota, a former defense minister, and Mbhazima Shilowa, an ex-premier of the region around Johannesburg, COPE is formulating the foundation of an organization that could truly rival the ANC some years down the road.  Already they are expected to win enough seats in Parliament to temper the decision making prowess that the ANC has wielded exclusively since coming to power.

Some such as Desmond Tutu believe the break up of the ANC will eventually lead to a stronger democracy by offering South Africans greater choices in governing philosophies.  However, the rancorous nature of the conflict between the Mbeki and Zuma camps threatens to dissolve the tenuous bonds that have kept the coalition of forces that comprise the ANC together.

Julius Malema, the president of the ANC Youth League, has made inflammatory language in defense of Zuma and against the Mbeki and the leaders of CORE a destructive art form, enraging even those who are sympathetic to his underlying arguments. Tensions between followers of the Inkatha Freedom Party and the ANC have flared dangerously in the KwaZulu-Natal region and last year’s breakout of violence against refugees from neighboring Zimbabwe was an ugly display of socio-economic anger and community breakdown. Furthermore there lies the specter of tribalism as the Xhosas, accustomed to possessing influence under Mbeki, must now face possible marginalization with Zuma—a Zulu—In office.

From whatever position one stands it is clear that South Africa is embarking upon another transformational period in its development and many are concerned over what the character of future leadership will be. Perhaps the most maddening thing about Mbeki was his ridiculous stance on AIDS, a disease that has continued to ravage his country in ways heartless Afrikaners steeped in entitlement and hate could only dream of accomplishing.  Zuma promises to be little better. In the most it-would-be-funny-if-it-weren’t-true statement of the ages, Zuma, during his trial for the rape of an HIV positive woman, explained that he couldn’t have extracted AIDS because he had “taken a shower afterward.” He was the head of the South Africa AIDS Council at the time of his statement.

This from the man poised to take the oath of office and fill the space The Great Man once occupied.